Between Reform and Restraint: An Analysis of the FY26 Budget

This commentary unpacks the key proposals and underlying signals in Pakistan’s Federal Budget for FY2025–26. With a record PKR 17.2 trillion outlay, the budget arrives at a time of economic uncertainty and mounting public debt. Our analysis goes beyond the headlines to explore what the numbers really mean — from new tax measures and development priorities to what’s missing in terms of relief for the average citizen. We examine how the government plans to balance fiscal discipline with political realities, including ambitious revenue targets, indirect tax hikes, and cuts to subsidies. Special attention is given to allocations for social protection, agriculture, digital services, and energy reforms. The budget’s alignment with IMF conditions is also critically reviewed, alongside its implications for inflation and everyday livelihoods. Whether you’re a student, policymaker, or just trying to make sense of where the country is headed — this breakdown offers a clear, accessible take on Pakistan’s fiscal direction for the year ahead.

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